I know you have been thinking winter is over, but nothing could be further from the truth. That is if current long range projections are correct.
Granted, this “January Thaw” has been wetter and longer lasting than usual. I have to admit, I am a 
little surprised that we haven’t had much more than a dusting of snow so far.
But as I look at everything combined, I can see where there may be a dramatic change in the pattern. The first thing I notice is that, starting next week a sudden stratospheric warming event over the Arctic and a weakening of the polar vortex is predicted to begin. It will likely have a significant impact on the Northern Hemisphere circulation in the coming weeks. I mentioned this could happen back in my blog post on Dec. 27th when I wrote…” a stronger east Asian jet will favor another attack on the stratosphere and cause sudden stratospheric warming which, in turn, would cause another weakening of the polar vortex in mid to late January, but any impacts on North American temperatures wouldn’t occur until at least late January or February.
When the polar vortex is weakened, a piece of it can surge farther south, bringing frigid arctic cold into portions of North America and Europe.” This is exactly what looks to be about to occur. The general pattern developing across North America will be one of a western ridge/eastern trough with the cold temperatures focused further east than in the first half of the winter that will last for much of February and possibly even into early March. This will probably mean a late spring for our neck of the woods.
Once the cold becomes established, I don’t expect a return of the warm temperatures we have had. But there may be a couple of periods where the cold won’t be as intense. If you have been following my forecasts for any length of time, you know that specifics on snow and exact dates is very difficult to predict. But here is my take on when it looks like we will have a chance for snow. Several impulses will cross the region during the January 26th through January 30th time frame.
These impulses don’t seem to be big snow makers but they may bring several rounds of light snow and maybe some light accumulations. As it stands now, I still maintain that the first two weeks of February look cold and snowy with notable storms around February 2nd (Groundhog Day) and another around the 8th through the 10th. After that, long range projections seem to support the probability that late February into early March will continue to see widespread cold and chances for moderate to possibly heavy snow events. Snow lovers should take heart. I expect we all should be able to make snow cream before long. Feel free to comment on this post and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the end.
