First things first, the long range outlooks are trending to a colder second half of February. So I haven’t given up on a measurable snow yet. We will see and I will talk more about that in future posts. I have been concerned over the last few weeks about the coming spring severe season.
There are several reasons for that. First, our region has not had a lot of severe weather over the last couple of years. The number of reported tornadoes in 2016 fell short of the annual average for the United States. As of early December 2016, the preliminary tornado reports add up to 976.
That is roughly a 25 percent decrease from the number of tornadoes in 2015. The 976 preliminary count is just slightly higher than the 886 reported in 2014, which is considered the lowest count in the past 10 years. The 10-year average number of tornadoes per year across the U.S. is 1,362, according to the Storm Prediction Center. This leads to other issues. It becomes more difficult to hold my Spotter teams together. Even though we have a very dedicated core group, some of the more recent recruits lose interest for lack of activity. I am also concerned that we get rusty when we go through long periods of no severe weather. Don’t get me wrong, we are all very happy there hasn’t been much severe weather.
So we keep training to try and stay on top of our game. We all know the severe weather and tornadoes will return. It may be already starting with the recent severe storms in our area. The other thing that worries me is the complacency of the public when it comes to heeding the warnings when they are issued. People have a tendency to not want to change plans or their behavior for weather unless they are fairly sure the weather is going to impact them. People get desensitized to watches and warnings after so many don’t produce any impacts for their specific area.
The thing that lead to many deaths in Joplin, Mo. in 2011 when a massive tornado struck, is that people went outside to see the tornado instead of taking cover.
Regardless of the warning, some people wait until they see their life is in danger. A lot of social media research was done and people said they have to see [a tornado] before they do something. There is also sociological evidence that people feel silly for taking shelter; that it somehow reflects poorly on their courage. Trust me…if you have ever been up close and personal with a tornado as myself and many of my team members have…worrying about your courage and feeling silly is the last thing you worry about. Most sensible people have several ways of getting warnings when they are issued.
One of those ways is through weather radios that broadcast weather directly from the National Weather Service. There is also texts like the one WKDZ offers, or a phone call provided by city and county governments. But how do we get folks to take action? The NWS have started enhanced warnings, which are warnings with amplified wording like severe and imminent danger. Alert notifications that are targeted to an exact location and provide more lead time, will help people react better. Also, warnings with potential impacts and calls to actions help people better respond to threatening weather. When people hear what the weather impacts are, such as damage and destruction to well-built homes, they start to pay attention.
When they are told they need to take shelter now because their locat
ion is going to take a direct impact, they usually act. The word emergency, such as a tornado emergency or flash flood emergency, tends to get the attention of people. The NWS relies on Spotters across the region to be their “eyes” on the ground. So when they issue a warning of severe weather, it is for good reason. Many people listen in on the Christian Co. Spotter’s radio traffic to hear field reports of what is going on through an app on their phone called 50 Radio or Police Scanner. But the National Weather Service are the ones with additional technology and expertise who decipher everything and issues the watches or warnings. So the next time a warning is issued, take it seriously and remember that many people have spent their time, energy and even risked their lives to try to make sure you are safe. Feel free to leave comments and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the bottom of this post.