The Summer Outlook

      May has turned out be a wet month over much of the eastern United States, and it has been a little on the cool side. We started out with a pretty much snowless winter followed by a warm spring in March and April with below normal rainfall. May has been almost a complete opposite.

 

Rainfall has surged to above average over a large part of the eastern U.S. during May. Many areas have received between one and a half and two times the normal rainfall this month. In some cases, the number of days with rain has outpaced days without rain. The wetter and cooler pattern will hold in place into June.

      The pattern of frequent rainfall is likely to continue for the first 10 days of June and could extend into the second 10 days of the month. While it has been wet in our area, the rains have been spaced apart just enough to allow farmers to work their fields and move forward with planting. Most areas in the corn belt of the central U.S. that are not experiencing lingering river flooding should receive a fair balance of heat and moisture to allow the crop to grow and mature. The combination of wet weather and lower temperatures has resulted in green lawns, filled reservoirs and poor drying conditions.

      Lawn cutting operations may struggle to keep up. I can attest to that since I am having to mow every few days. While there can be a very warm day here and there, long stretches of hot weather are unlikely into the middle of June and maybe longer. Somewhere during the second half of or the last part of June, the pattern is expected to dry out a bit and then warm up as a result. This may occur as the Bermuda High starts to influence our weather pattern.

      The Bermuda High is a high pressure area that is usually centered in the vicinity of Bermuda during the spring and summer. This high pressure area is responsible for the prolonged heat waves in the Eastern part of the country. Since winds blow clockwise around high pressure areas in the northern hemisphere, a south to south-westerly wind transports heat and humidity into our area and much of the eastern U.S. This is what usually causes those hazy, hot, and humid days we are so familiar with during the peak of summer. During the late spring and summer, cold fronts from the north and west have trouble making inroads into the area due to the persistent Bermuda High’s influence. It doesn’t appear to me that the Bermuda High will have as strong of an influence on our weather this year compared to years past. One particularly important thing to consider in summer is the relationship between soil moisture and temperatures. Moister soils result in cooler temperatures and cooler temperatures result in moisture soils while drier soils result in warmer temperatures and warmer temperatures result in drier soils. As an example, while both Europe and the Eastern US were relatively cool the first half of May the soils across the Eastern US are relatively wetter compared to that of Europe.  It turned much warmer across the Eastern US last week but it did not persist.  Now Western Europe is turning warmer and with dry soils already in place, the warmer temperatures may have more staying power. 

      As we head into summer, Western Europe is at higher risk for longer stretches of dry weather and above normal temperature in the coming months.  In contrast the Eastern US is at lower risk for persistent dry, hot weather as long as the local soils remain relatively wet. Overall, I expect July to be fairly typical with plenty of warm, maybe even hot and humid days and just enough rainfall to prevent any major dry conditions. Summer weather should be in full swing as we reach the Dog Days toward the end of July and lasting into the third week of August. The “dog days,” I always thought, were those summer days so devastatingly hot that even dogs would lie around on the porch, panting. Instead, it turns out, the dog days refer to the Dog Star, Sirius, and its position in the heavens. I don’t think this stretch will be as hot as in years past. But, trust me, it will still be plenty warm.

      Finally, it looks to me like our core of true summer like weather this year will last about 6 to 8 weeks. Hopefully, a dry pattern will be in place for the Eclipse on August 21st. But around that time, maybe a couple of days after, there are signs that the pattern could be shifting to a milder and wetter pattern towards the latter half of August into early September. This will signal what may be an early fall. Feel free to leave comments and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the bottom of this post.