Is Winter Over?

      It seems that no matter where I go nowadays, folks are asking…Is it going to snow before spring? I wish I had the answer to that. But there are some things going on that may mean we will have one or

 

two more shots at a snowfall. I have to say that the longer we go without a measurable snow, the less likely it will be that we will get one. The lack of measurable snow over an entire winter season is unusual but not unheard of. For example, during the winter of 2011-12 there was only 0.4" of snow recorded at Evansville. It was a bit less in our area of western Kentucky.

Going from this point forward, the overall setup in the patterns seem to favor the milder Pacific air over the colder Arctic air. I don't see any major change in our jet stream pattern through the end of the month. Stop and think about how things went in January and February. It has been a seesaw battle between the cold and warmth. The cold would come in but never seemed to stay for more than a day or two. Then, near record warmth would work back in.

So, is winter over? Well, it is possible that a cold air system may get into the region before mid-March and some models are hinting at that.  More than likely the warmer pattern will persist especially considering our track record so far with snow. March does look to be active especially where severe storms are concerned. We have already recorded a tornado in Trigg County recently. Luckily it was an EF-0 and didn’t do a lot of damage. But it may be an early sign of what is to come once the spring severe season gets underway. As for 2017, forecasters aren't able to predict the severity of the tornado season this far out. There is no way to forecast the annual number of tornadoes, and they do fluctuate a great deal from year to year. But considering the back and forth temperature struggles between the warmth and cold, this certainly looks like a much more active season than what we have seen in the last four years or so.

As a matter of fact, January 2017 was the deadliest for tornadoes in any January since 1969. The number of tornado-related deaths in those two days also exceeds what was seen in all of 2016. The best way for us to survive the spring severe season is to be prepared. When there is a severe weather threat, always be sure to have a way to get warning information to alert you of any danger headed your way. In general, your awareness of the threat for overnight severe weather, before you go to sleep, is very important. Is a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch extending into the overnight hours? Or is there a threat of severe weather developing overnight? Make sure your weather radio or smartphone is ready to alert you. You can sign up to receive weather texts such as the one offered for free by WKDZ. The ability to get critical weather information may save your life. Feel free to leave comments and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the bottom of this post.