Groundhog Day is a popular observance in many parts of the United States. Although some states have in some cases adopted their own groundhogs, the official groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, lives at Gobbler’s Knob near Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.
The town has attracted thousands of visitors over the years to experience various Groundhog Day 
events and activities on February 2. Many weather researchers questioned the groundhog’s accuracy in predicting the weather, but some of the groundhog’s fans may not agree. We should remember that Groundhog Day is an observance but it is not a public holiday in the United States.
Thousands of years ago when animalism and nature worship were prevalent, people in the area of Europe now known as Germany believed that the badger had the power to predict the coming of spring. They watched the badger to know when to plant their crops. By the time the first German immigrants settled in Pennsylvania they probably understood that this was not true but the tradition continued. But there were not many badgers in Pennsylvania, so the groundhog was substituted for the badger. Tradition has it that if the groundhog sees its shadow on February 2 it will be frightened by it and will then return to its burrow, indicating that there will be 6 more weeks of winter.
If it does not see its shadow, then spring is on the way. Either way it has a 50-50 chance of being right. From what I am seeing is that we are looking at six more weeks of winter at least.
First, let’s talk about this first weekend in February. Seasonably cool and dry weather is expected to return to the region by Saturday Feb.3rd. The models seem to be in good agreement that a trough will dig southeast towards the Tennessee Valley by Sunday and Monday. This should result in another shot of cold air and a shot of snow, depending on the track of an upper level disturbance as it rides along the jet stream. Confidence is low with regard to exactly how these pieces of energy will interact, but some potential is there for wintry accumulation.
Then, an active and cold pattern looks to continue into the first part of next week resulting in the potential for light snow events. Actually, the pattern looks like one that will have continuous shots of cold and storms of varying strength for a week or two starting on Feb. 5th and continuing until about mid-month. The track of each storm will vary from one to the next, and it is too early to speculate on the exact track of each storm. The stronger storms will tend to track from southwest to northeast, rather than west to east. There is the potential for the storms to be so close together that some areas may barely get a break of dry weather for a full calendar day.
A couple of things are happening in the Polar Region that hint at what is coming. 
The first is a sudden stratospheric warming event near Alaska that will have the effect of releasing the Polar Vortex. The other is a cross polar flow that transfers brutally cold air from Siberia into the North American Polar Region. I believe that the potential exists for the most widespread and coldest temperatures of the winter will occur during the mid-month time frame of February thanks to the Polar Vortex. The cold could even extend into March as the battle between spring and winter gets underway. 
No doubt in March, there will be bouts of severe weather in between the cold shots. As we move towards Valentine’s Day, the forecast is for the pattern to amplify and for the cold in the east to deepen. Most of you know I have been talking about this for several weeks. It also looks like there may be a major winter storm affecting our region about that time as well with significant snow. Having said all this, I am listing dates to watch for snow potential.
Just remember, this is weather and nothing is in concrete but here they are. Feb 4th & 5th…Feb 8th…Feb 11th…Feb 14th thru the 20th…Feb 23rd…March 13th…April 2nd & 3rd. So, I do think there will be at least six more weeks of the potential for snow. But don’t be fooled, it may get wild as severe storms begin breaking out in March and April. But at least no one can say we didn’t have a winter this year. So just be prepared. Feel free to leave comments and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the bottom of this post.