The Sun, Winter, and Spring

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It seems that our weather is unusual as we get into spring of 2018. The battle between cold and warmth is ramping up as usual. But there seems to be more extremes. We are cold with snow one day, then we get warm with severe storms a few days later, then we turn cold again. As I have looked at the patterns, I am wondering if the extended period of cold this spring is a result of other things that could be ongoing in our overall climate. There are a lot of things that play a part in our overall climate including our daily weather patterns. But one of the bigger players in our climate is the sun and right now there is something going on with the sun. Sunspots are becoming scarce. So far in 2018, the sun has been blank–that is, without sunspots–for 33 days. That’s fully half of the time.

If we look at the face of today’s sun…the last time the sun was blank more than 50% of the time was in 2009, near the end of the deepest Solar Minimum of the Space Age. Now the sun is entering a new Solar Minimum, and it is shaping up to be even deeper than before. Periods of spotlessness are a normal part of the 11-year solar cycle. However, the current Solar Minimum may be remarkable as the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field are weakening to low levels never before seen in the Space Age. The flagging pressure of the solar wind, in turn, is allowing more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. These rays are being detected not only by NASA spacecraft in the Earth-Moon system, but also by space weather balloons in Earth’s atmosphere. Solar Activity is one of the main factors needed to predict winter weather. Its effects are mainly felt as far as either strengthening or weakening of the polar jet stream during the winter months.

Each year since 2014, solar activity has decreased by around 15% a year. But, so far this year, there has been a dramatic decrease in solar activity. Sunspots release solar flares and vast amounts of magnetic energy. For the fourth time this year, the sun has gone blank, which has led some experts to believe that a new Ice Age is on the horizon and could hit us by 2019. The last time there was such low solar activity was in the 15th century, when a mini Ice Age occurred, causing the Thames to freeze over in 1607. It is feared the lack of sunspot activity could prompt the arrival of a cold snap similar to the Maunder Minimum, which started in 1645 and continued to about 1715. This period is known as the Little Ice Age and became famous for the winter frost fairs held on the frozen surface of the Thames.

This is the dire forecast of Professor Valentina Zharkova, a solar physicist at Northumbria University, who has based her prediction on sun spot activity – known to be a significant driver of global climate – which is currently very low and likely to get even lower during the next three solar cycles. Make the most of this summer because it could be your last decent one: winter is coming as the planet enters the most devastating cooling period since the 65-year Maunder Minimum of the 17th and early 18th centuries, according to Professor Zharkova. The sun is looking as smooth as a billiard ball right now and sunspots are appearing at the lowest rate for 10,000 years as solar activity slows down.

So what do we expect over the next few weeks? I had originally thought the cold would relax after mid-March. But, unfortunately, many of the models have backtracked on that and are now trending colder all the way into the first week of April. It looks like the little disturbances moving along the southern jet stream will be deflected further south of western Kentucky. This means cooler temperatures for the region and even the chance for more snow at times. That is not to say there won’t be a warm day or two, but they won’t last long. There is a storm in the outlooks around March 20th that looks similar to the storm we just saw where snow fell. Ironically, that is also the first day of spring. Then it looks like we will get warm again by the 28th or 29th of March along with the potential for severe storms. This will be followed by another cold air intrusion will carry us into the first week of April. At some point, the warmer pattern should win out with severe episodes becoming more frequent. The overall long range pattern seems to be a mild but not overly warm spring and wetter than usual conditions. Hopefully the weather won’t be as extreme as what has been described here. About all we can do is be prepared and have an emergency plan.