We are entering March and many have written winter off. The warmer temperatures has caused trees to bud and flowers to peep through the soil. This happens because the temperature of the air and soil starts to warm up and the hours of daylight increase as the days get longer with the coming of spring.
The warming air brings hibernating animals back out into the world, most notably 
insects, such as bees and wasps. The weather pattern that produced hundreds of daily record highs and dozens of record highs for the month of February is probably on the order of a once-in-100-years event.
But I must caution you that warm air surges like the episode that sparked February records this past week or two in the eastern United States do not mean that winter is over. With the warmth, we have to continue to be on guard for the potential for severe weather, especially with the stormy weather pattern like we have now. 
As of the middle of February, the preliminary count of tornadoes is close to two dozen for 2018, according to the National Weather Service. This is compared to a three-year average of 90 confirmed tornadoes for the same period during 2015, 2016 and 2017.
Then, on February 24th, the first severe weather outbreak of the year triggered tornadoes, extensive damage and flooding across the Mississippi and Ohio valleys this past week. Thirteen preliminary tornadoes were reported on Saturday and Saturday night, causing three deaths and numerous injuries, according to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. A majority of the tornadoes touched 
down in Kentucky and Tennessee. However, as the calendar flips to March, significant changes are likely to take place in the jet stream pattern over North America.
Remember that I spoke about a sudden stratospheric warming event that took place in the Arctic a couple of weeks ago. That normally means a piece of the Polar Vortex will bring colder weather for the eastern U.S. in about ten days. But since when has our weather been normal lately? This pattern typically persists for four to six weeks following a Polar Vortex disruption and is often accompanied by widespread cold temperatures across the continents with a focus across Eurasia but, with time usually includes the Eastern US. 
But a split Polar Vortex ended up going to the other side of the polar region into Northern Asia. An upcoming change for early March will bring a return of colder weather to our region.
We will be watching for a southward dip in the jet stream over parts of the eastern U.S. A southward dip in the jet stream allows cold air to move across a region. But it is looking more and more like the colder air slated for early March around the 5th or 6th will not pack the punch of early January’s cold. The key will be how far to the east or west the dip in the jet stream occurs. But even if that lines up to bring in cold air, it looks like it won’t be all that cold. Instead, the well above normal temperatures in the Eastern US will cool back towards more seasonable levels and possibly eventually below normal. Normal highs for this time of year in western Kentucky are in the low 50’s and normal lows are in the upper 
20’s to lower 30’s.
If that turns out to be the case, I don’t expect too much damage to the buds that have already started coming out. But we will just have to see how cold it gets. I do expect the colder temperatures to persist into mid-March at least. There are signs of a return to a more spring like pattern by the 20th which is the first official day of spring. Multiple storms are likely during the first half of March. Will there be any more snow across our region? The exact track of each storm may vary. So, if one storm misses with snow, another may not. Otherwise, the clock is ticking for any additional snowfall. It is possible, but each passing day, it will become less likely. Either way, it looks like it will be a wet March. Feel free to leave comments and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the bottom of this post.