This is a new feature I hope to add to this blog on occasion. As the title implies, it is a look at the long range trends to get some idea on what to expect over a period of time. Keep in mind, these outlooks are overall trends over a three-month period.
An individual cold front or an upper ridge of high pressure can lead to a brief period of colder or warmer weather, respectively. The same front or area of high pressure can bring a brief period of enhanced 
precipitation or dry spell that may or may not be indicative of the overall trend we’re anticipating. Just remember, this is not an official forecast but simply a look at the overall trends. Anything over 7 to 10 days out is subject to change and the degree of accuracy goes down.
So take it all with a grain of salt and don’t make life decisions based on what you read in this post. As we start our fall outlook, the first shot of cool fall air arrives this first full week of September and is a week or so earlier than usual. We are still in hurricane season and as the month goes on, other threats of heavy rain may occur with remnants of hurricanes as they move over the region. By mid-September, look for another serious cool down as cold fronts start getting through the region with greater frequency. As we start October, we also start the fall severe season. 
Severe weather will threaten the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley as water temperatures continue to run above normal in the Gulf of Mexico. There’s also an increased chance of above-average rainfall for the region around the Great Lakes, including Ohio, as well as the Tennessee Valley.
As I said, the Gulf of Mexico waters are still well above normal. So, if you get any of those mid- to late-season storms coming down in the northern Plains like we’re expecting, you’re going to get a clash of air masses. This clash could cause to severe weather to erupt, with the threat for tornado outbreaks from Texas to Tennessee and Kentucky. Temperatures are predicted to fluctuate up and 
down throughout fall, as mild days are interspersed with intrusions of cooler air. This year, however, some forecasters are predicting a bit of early-season snow in the air, arriving as soon as October. Whether that occurs or not, the upper air currents and blocking patterns seem to indicate a serious cold spell by the second or third week of October.
A few small bouts of winter weather are also in the offing during November but the cold won’t be as dominant and the month may actually be on the warm side. There may even be a few rounds of severe weather as the fall severe season starts to wind down a bit. By December, we will start to see the arrival of several cold snaps and winter gets ready to take over. Now for the fun part. I am picking out a few dates and will attempt to give you an idea on what may be expected on those dates:
Wed 9/6 Hi 72º/Lo 49º Pleasant with periods of sun. First night with lows in the 40’s
Fri 9/8 Hi 75º/Lo 51º Partly sunny and beautiful Start of Trail of Tears Pow Wow
Sat 9/9 Hi 76º/Lo 53º Pleasant with sunshine Trail Of Tears Pow Wow
Sun 9/10 Hi 77º/Lo 56º Sunny and nice Trail Of Tears Pow Wow
Fri 10/6 Hi 78º/Lo 48º Periods of clouds & sun Start of Ham Festival in Cadiz
Sat 10/7 Hi 78º/Lo 41º Rather Cloudy, a few showers Ham Festival
Sun 10/8 Hi 72º/Lo 40º Sunshine Ham Festival
Wed 10/11 Hi 65º/Lo 37º Partly Sunny Date of potential first frost
Tue 10/31 Hi 66º/Lo 45º Low Clouds Halloween
Tue 11/7 Hi 59º/Lo 32º Mostly Sunny First Freeze
Tue 11/21 Hi 59º/Lo 30º Windy, Rain and snow First chance of seeing snow
Thu 11/23 Hi 49º/Lo 39º Mostly Sunny & colder Thanksgiving Day
Remember, the further out we look, this less reliable this becomes. So take it for what it is. I will be updating and adding to this list as we go forward. So stay tuned. If you enjoy reading this blog, feel free to leave comments and please hit the “like” button at the bottom.
