Winter 2016/17 was much milder than average as a whole with very little snow. There were a couple of dustings and I believe the total snowfall last winter was an inch or less for the whole season. This left many folks thinking we didn’t have a winter.
Temperatures were not that cold either. So I have been watching the patterns since spring to try to get an idea of what we may be facing this fall and winter. So far, my thoughts on the summer hasn’t been too far off 
which gives me a little more confidence in looking forward. I felt all along we would have a little shorter summer and that overall, temperatures would not be as hot for extended periods of time like ones in the past. Yes, it has been hot recently and that heat lasted for about two weeks. But before that, it hasn’t been all that bad of a summer.
So it looks like the worst of the heat is over. But we still need some rain. There will still be some 90 degree days in our future in August before fall sets in. But it doesn’t look like there will be any more long lasting heat waves. When forecasting long range, many factors need to be taken into account and one factor alone is not enough to sway the forecast a particular way. 
Solar Activity is one of the main factors needed to predict winter weather. It’s affects are mainly felt as far as either strengthening or weakening of the polar jet stream during the winter months.
Each year since 2014, solar activity has decreased by around 15% a year. For 2017/18 solar activity will be at “very low” designated levels. Which typically would lead to forecasts of a negative NAO. For those who have been following me for a while, you know that the NOA is a large-scale fluctuation in atmospheric pressure between the subtropical high pressure system located near the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean and the sub-polar low pressure system near Iceland. When the NAO index is low or negative, (NAO-), the eastern seaboard and southeastern United States can incur winter cold outbreaks more than the norm with 
associated heavy snowstorms in Appalachia/mid-Atlantic region and sub-freezing conditions into Florida.
During the last 2 decades, the notable colder and snowier winters have occurred during the late part of solar minimum when there are little to no sunspots and when the NAO is usually at it’s most negative, fueling northern blocking patterns that forces Arctic air southward into the eastern U.S. The solar cycle is not optimal, however some notable periods of below average temperatures are probable during mid-winter. Winter 2017/18 is not positioned at the “optimal” phase of the solar activity cycle for a ripe negative NAO. We are still 18 to 36 months out from the full solar minimum. But this year, a weak El Nino and a negative NAO are ripe for a colder than average winter in the US. Similar set ups in the past are the winter of 2014/15 and winter 2009/10.
Which were both snowy winters for much of the states. This year, unlike last winter, more significant snowfall east of the Mississippi River is probable. So, my early thoughts for Winter 2017/18: Temperature: higher chance of near normal temperatures with the deepest cold in the east. Snowfall: another season of lower than average snowfall is a probability nationwide. But near normal snowfall for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Most severe conditions of the winter: January 2018. In a nutshell, this year sees almost a reversed pattern from last winter. Having said all this, it is important to remember that long range forecasting is not an exact forecast and changes are likely to be made as we approach the winter season. This is a reflection of what seems to be the trends and other factors could change the outlook. So take it with a grain of salt. Feel free to leave comments and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the bottom of this post.
