Ok…here it is. My very early outlook on what I think the patterns are showing concerning fall and winter for western Kentucky and surrounding areas. Let me start by saying there are several things to consider when I came up with this.
But I want to say upfront that this is subject to change depending on events over the next month or so. It is designed to give you just an idea of what may be coming. But everything should be taken with a grain of salt. So here is my best educated guess… The first thing I considered is the low solar sunspot activity. 
Historically, all of the periods in the known sunspot record that have had low sunspot activity have also had relatively cool temperatures, averaged across the globe.
I, and others, believe that with low solar activity continuing for at least the next 10 to 30 years, global temperatures will be cooler than they would otherwise be. But solar activity is not the only factor in Earth’s weather. One factor that all atmospheric scientists believe can make Earth colder for as much as a few years is a volcanic eruption that spews ash into the middle and upper portions of the atmosphere. At last count, there were 42 active volcanoes worldwide. Ash can help reflect some of the solar energy back into space and serve to help reduce the warming effects of the sun. Then you have events occurring in the Pacific.
The warmer than normal Pacific Ocean waters caused by a strong El Niño is over and is transitioning to La Niña. In other words, the water in the South Pacific near the Equator is cooling off. Why does this matter? It matters because it will change the average position of the jet stream this winter. The jet stream guides storm systems around the globe ultimately determining where the heaviest snow falls in any given winter season. The models continue to waffle back and forth on how strong the La Nina may become.
Or it may even be nonexistent. The weaker the La Nina, the more likely our region will be colder and snowier this coming winter. That is what I am thinking will happen. A very weak La Nina will probably lead to colder and snowier times ahead. So the outlook is that I expect our first real taste of fall will come around September 5th, give or take a couple of days.
High should be in the lower 80’s with less humidity and sunny skies. There will still be days in the first half of the month when the highs may hit near 90 but those days will come less frequently and the humidity shouldn’t be too high. By mid-month, the 90’s should be only a memory and from that point on, highs will average in the mid to upper-70’s. October starts with typical fall weather and cobalt blue skies with highs in the mid to upper 70’s. It becomes unsettle
d by the second week with periods of rain and highs dropping to the upper 60’s and lows in the low to mid 40’s. We could flirt with a chance for frost during that time depending on sky conditions. I look for an autumn storm around mid-month with wind and rainy conditions. Also, another storm system may arrive by the start of the last week of October.
Highs will average in the lower 70’s, just a few degrees above normal. Early Halloween weather guess is cloudy with a chance for rain and a high in the upper 60’s. Typical cool shots will hit the region at times in October and November, but prolonged chilly weather will wait until late in the fall for most areas. November starts off with rain chances continuing but also a turn to much cooler temperatures. It will be an unsettled time with lots of clouds off and on. Highs in the first week should be in the upper 50’s and lows in the mid 30’s. There seems to be a better possibility of seeing frost on Saturday the 5th or Sunday the 6th. Cold shots are predicted to arrive by the middle to late November, just in time for Thanksgiving. The cold air could allow some snow to fall in late November providing the La Nina remains weak.
The rest of the winter forecast all depends on just how strong La Nina becomes. If it stays pretty weak or even neutral, winter could be quite harsh with visits form our old friend, the Polar Vortex. As it stands now, winter will be slightly warmer than normal, with near-normal precipitation and above-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be in early to mid-January, from late January through most of February with temperatures moderating late February. The snowiest periods will be in late-November, late December, late January, and early to mid-February. Obviously, this far out, there is just no way to know with any degree of certainty that this will all happen like I said. So don’t take everything to heart. Lots of things can change. This is just a look at the current trends and what appears to be the way things are headed. I will fine tune it when we get deeper into the season. Feel free to leave comments and be sure to hit the “Like” button at the bottom of this post.
